市场风险如何工作？

市场风险被定义为市场价格变动引起的损失风险。从本质上讲，这是一个非常简单的概念，具体取决于我们正在进行的交易的哪一方（或期望将来进行）。例如，如果公司在商品，股票，商品或投资资产上占用很长的（买入）头寸，那么如果该股票的市场价格下跌，则可以通过损失多少来定义市场风险敞口持有期。相比之下，如果公司需要购买商品或资产，则以市场风险的方式购买商品或资产，他们会“短”地接触价格。也就是说，如果价格上涨，他们将产生更高的成本并在价格上涨时“损失”。

前面的讨论使我们提出了诸如

• 什么风险是可以容忍的？
• 鉴于这种风险，应交易多少金额？
• 我应该如何管理（树篱）风险敞口

管理市场风险

使用衍生合同来对冲是一种处理市场风险的一种方法。作为几个示例，还有其他技术，例如在利率市场中的成熟度匹配和免疫接种，但在本文中涵盖这些技术将非常复杂。

If we reflect on our example of the rice farmer in step 3.9, the rice farmer has a ‘long’ exposure to the price of a tonne of rice in the future when the harvest is brought to market, while on the other side the sushi restaurant has a ‘short’ exposure because they need to buy rice. With regard to the questions above, by fully covering the long rice position with a futures contract the farmer’s answer to the first question above is ‘none’, and by fully covering the position with an offsetting futures position we can infer that the farmer has a high degree of uncertainty about the future spot price of rice or is certain that the price will fall. If, on the other hand, our farmer was certain that the price of rice was going to rise, then ‘all’ or ‘some’ might be their answers to the first two questions and they might choose to leave their long position fully exposed to the market or partially cover the exposure with a futures contract.

市场风险发生在价格和需求条件以及市场交易者的行动的任何市场中都会发生。

挥发性

当我们考虑价格变动时，我们需要超越（简单）考虑价格上涨还是下降的（我们还考虑价格的波动性），这就是价格的移动，以及它们的速度或频率。价格极大地波动的商品或股票被认为是高度波动的。保持相对稳定的股票的波动性较低。并不是说高波动性或低波动既不是好事也不是坏，而是我们需要意识到波动水平并在确定我们对市场风险的容忍度以及管理它的方法时考虑到它的水平。在更波动的市场中，市场风险（价格不确定性）自然更高。

杠杆作用

在考虑市场风险时，杠杆的概念是另一个重要的考虑因素。可以使用杠杆来扩大市场风险 - 要么通过借入资金来担任职位，要么使用某些类型的衍生品（例如期权和期货）。

To illustrate – consider an investor that has $10,000 to invest in a stock that typically moves 5 to 15% in a year, and then decides to ‘leverage’ or ‘gear up’ their returns by using 2 times leverage (that is by borrowing another $20,000 from someone else) to take a larger effective position in the stock. If the stock goes up by 15%, $4500, the investor closes the position out, repays the loan and is left with a gain of $4500 (ignoring for the moment transaction costs, loan interest and taxes) a 45% gross return on the investor’s own funds instead of the 15% gain they would have earned on an unleveraged position on the stock. Conversely, if the investor had leveraged and the stock fell by 15%, a 45% loss would have resulted, compared to a 15% loss on an unleveraged position. Like volatility, leverage can be exploited to amplify gains, but with that it amplifies market risk and should be used with due care.